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Sir Winston Churchill reached his peak in 1940 when at 66 he replaced the weak Neville Chamberlain as the Prime Minister of Britain. His fiery speeches helped rally the British to fight against the malevolent forces led by Nazi Germany under the murderous Adolf Hitler. The people praised him to the high heavens and he became a public hero.
In 1945, general elections were held and to the amazement of political pundits, Churchill lost to Labour leader, Clement Attlee, in one of the greatest electoral upsets in history.
The 2019 general elections in Nigeria have come and gone, but, as historians, it is necessary to critically examine them and see what lessons can be learnt by both state and non-state actors, as well as the citizens.
There were many upsets this year. The Otoge movement in Kwara State ended the decades-old domination of the Saraki dynasty in that state. How did the Senate President, Bukola Saraki, lose out totally in the scheme of things? Some analysts opine that the people were tired of him and they wanted a change. They had served the father for decades with nothing tangible to show for it and they were tired of also serving his son, too.
The people came together under the Otoge banner, which had the imprimatur of several politicians, such as the Information and Culture Minister, Alhaji Lai Mohammed; the Senator-elect for Kwara Central Senatorial District, Dr. Ibrahim Oloriegbe and the Senate President’s estranged sister, Gbemi Saraki, among many others, to retire him. Also, many politicians in the All Progressives Congress didn’t forgive him for ceding the deputy senate presidency to Ike Ekweremadu. In the current American presidential system of government, the unwritten rule is that the winner takes all. It was suicidal to concede a key position to the opposition. That was a mortal sin, apologies to the Roman Catholic Church.
Some analysts opine that pride was Saraki’s undoing. They say he devoted more time to coordinate Atiku’s campaign and took his home turf for granted. Others say his defection to the Peoples Democratic Party was his greatest undoing. I beg to disagree. What do you have to say about the likes of Dino Melaye, Samuel Ortom and Abubakar Tambuwal who defected from the APC to the PDP and still won the governorship election in their respective states?
Oil magnate, Ifeanyi Ubah, got his first electoral victory under the platform of the obscure Young Peoples Party. To have defeated Senator Andy Uba and his younger brother, Chief Chris Uba, was no mean feat. Ubah has already started hobnobbing with the ruling APC, although he debunked rumours linking him with the party. Time will tell if he will stay glued to the YPP.
With the re-election of Stella Oduah and Uche Ekwunife, Anambra State has the highest number of female senators in the country, which is a victory for gender parity in the polity.
Dino Melaye proved to be a dogged fighter as he once again beat the former Nigerian Union of Journalists President, Senator Smart Adeyemi, in a largely APC controlled state. Considering that he battled Governor Yahaya Bello of Kogi State, his home state, successfully and survived a recall by his constituency, as well as intimidation by the Federal Government, he is, indeed, a cat with nine lives.
Samuel Ortom proved to be an adept risk taker as he read the mood of the people of Benue State, who wanted a change of parties as the APC proved incapable of effectively protecting them from the murderous Fulani herdsmen. He smartly defected to the opposition PDP and was handed the second term ticket as a reward.
The Otoge movement didn’t sweep Lagos State as Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, fondly called Jagaban, is still in charge. He christened his own movement Otope and threw his weight behind the candidacy of his anointed son, Babajide Olusola Sanwoolu, who won with a landslide. Jimi Agbaje was forced to congratulate him, meaning that he won’t be presenting his case before the elections petitions tribunal in the state.
Omoyele Sowore presented his political party, the African Action Congress, with its campaign slogan – ‘Take it back’ – as the third force. However, he didn’t even emerge third in the elections. His party was used by Rotimi Amaechi to battle Nyesom Wike for the Rivers State governorship elections after the suspension of the APC candidate, Tonye Cole. The question on the lips of some pundits is why AAC?
Dr. Oby Ezekwesili disappointed her numerous supporters and fans by pulling out of the presidential race, a few days to the elections, to support the so-called third force coalition. She has been silent since then and may not be taken seriously in future elections.
Oyo State has the distinction of being the only PDP state in the South-West. Analysts posit that it was the bad policies of the Senator Abiola Ajimobi-led government that led to APC’s loss in the governorship election in the state. He also suffered a senatorial loss as the Ibadan people were hell bent on dealing with him as a result of his anti-people policies. The votes of the masses truly counted this time.
There were pockets of violence in some states, which led to re-run elections being held in the affected places. Foreign observers were divided in their verdict. While some gave the elections a pass mark, others dismissed it as a sham that didn’t truly reflect the will of the people.
The emergence of the principal officers of the 9th Senate will be of keen interest to all Nigerians. Adams Oshiomhole already said that there won’t be sharing of power by the APC with any other party – a tacit condemnation of what the disgraced Saraki did.
The next four years will be filled with drama and intrigue. We hope that the Man on the Clapham Omnibus gets the full dividends of democracy as every revolution must begin with breakfast.
[Punch]
