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IOWA CITY, Iowa — Looking strictly at statistics during the past three years, the results of the Iowa-Minnesota series would come across as surprising.
Last year, Minnesota rushed for 312 yards and lost 13-10. In 2021, the Gophers had 40 minutes and 2 seconds in time of possession and ran for 189 yards but still lost 27-22. Three years ago, Minnesota ran for 145 yards but was beaten 35-7.
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Those are not winning statistics in most years for a team like Iowa, yet the Hawkeyes’ perseverance and fourth-quarter moments provided the edge the last two years. The plus-two turnover margin was critical in 2022, but the Gophers’ dominance in the running game is what Iowa defensive line coach Kelvin Bell remembers the most.
“They do a really good job,” Bell said. “Their offensive line coach, Coach (Brian) Callahan, is an outstanding coach. What they’ve done is they really simplified their run game. And it goes back to the quote — I’ve said a quote a couple of years ago — Bruce Lee said about practicing one kick 10,000 times, instead of 10,000 kicks. They’ve got one kick, and they practice the hell out of it.
“We’ve got a pretty good idea of what they’re going to do. But they’ve got a pretty good idea of where we’re going to be. And nose-to-nose, eye-to-eye, it’s going to be the guy that has the most grit, and the guy that can get off a block and make a play that’s going to be successful.”
The biggest question for Minnesota is whether freshman running back Darius Taylor will be able to play. Taylor has missed the past two games with an injury and is a game-time decision. As one of the nation’s top freshmen, Taylor has rushed for 532 yards, averaging 6.1 yards per carry, and four touchdowns.
“They’ve done an admirable job of piecing it together with kind of running back-by-committee with a bunch of anywhere between decent and good running backs,” NBC play-by-play broadcaster Paul Burmeister said. “But (Taylor is) potentially special. It’s an interesting and rapid arc for him. He had one carry that first game, and then they’re like, ‘OK, let’s give it to him 30 times a game every week and see how he does.’ He’s a potential difference-maker on that offense.”
Burmeister and analyst Anthony Herron played football at Iowa, which has the potential to draw extra scrutiny from Minnesota fans when they call the game for NBC (2:30 p.m. CT). But both broadcasters have primary jobs away from their alma mater and vow to broadcast the game without favoritism.
Burmeister works multiple events for NBC Sports and is the radio voice of Notre Dame football. Herron provides college football analysis on BTN and Sirius XM and does the same with the Chicago Bears for multiple outlets, including Fox 32 and 670 AM.
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“It’s not going to be an issue at all,” Burmeister said. “It’s not something I’m going to have to talk myself into or get myself into the right space. I’m as excited to talk about (Minnesota quarterback) Athan Kaliakmanis as I am to talk about (Iowa quarterback) Deacon Hill. I hope Darius Taylor has a great game, and in the same way, I hope that (Iowa running back) Leshon Williams has a great game. I’m going to have as much material on Kirk Ferentz as I am P.J. Fleck. I just want it to be a close game at the end. And whoever wins, wins.”
For the record, Burmeister was 1-1 against the Gophers as a starting quarterback.
“It’s special to go back to the place that feels like home,” Burmeister said. “But as for the actual game and the call and the energy level and the information you bring, where you went to school has nothing to do with it.”
The Iowa-Minnesota series will remain an annual rivalry when the Big Ten eliminates divisions after this season. The long-time foes have played every year since 1931, and the intensity is obvious.
“Every game between them has been a fistfight, so we got to be ready for that,” Iowa defensive end Joe Evans said. “Me being an older guy, I’m able to let the young guys know who haven’t played Minnesota yet like, ‘You guys have got to be ready to go.’ These guys are going to be coming, and they’re going to be ready, and they’re going to be fired up.”
Last year, the wind chill was at minus-1 degrees at Minneapolis for the November contest. The projected high for Saturday is 64 degrees. Although Iowa hasn’t lost to Minnesota at Kinnick Stadium since 1999, their past four meetings in Iowa City have been decided by 21 points.
“The games have been really close the last few years,” Fleck said. “That’s what rivalries should be. I think both teams really respect the rivalry. The fan bases really do. Iowa obviously has the upper hand over the years.”
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Minnesota player to watch: Safety Tyler Nubin. He has three interceptions, and he’s one of the nation’s best players regardless of position. A second-team All-American by The Athletic, Nubin is a game-changer. His video highlights against Nebraska in the season opener provide plenty of proof.
Iowa player to watch: Defensive back Sebastian Castro has become a weapon in the Hawkeyes’ defense. Last week, Castro delivered several big-time hits in the running game, intercepted a pass and his blitz led to a safety. His hitting ability allows Iowa to stay in a five-defensive-back personnel even against run-first alignments.
Prediction: Iowa 16, Minnesota 12
(Top photo of Sebastian Castro: Matthew Holst / Getty Images)
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Scott Dochterman is a staff writer for The Athletic covering the Iowa Hawkeyes. He previously covered Iowa athletics for the Cedar Rapids Gazette and Land of 10. Scott also worked as an adjunct professor teaching sports journalism at the University of Iowa.
