Football
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Football Journalist
Saturday 28 October 2023 15:27, UK
Our tipster Jones Knows takes aim at the Premier League action, unleashing his predictions and betting angles across an exciting weekend.
You do not really need my help for this one, do you? This one always ends in a draw. Nine of the last 16 meetings have ended 1-1. Those that like following scary trends can get 6/1 with Sky Bet on that scoreline – it certainly wouldn’t surprise me with Wolves progressing into a devilishly difficult team to beat, putting together a four-match unbeaten run despite facing Aston Villa and Manchester City in that period.
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If Wolves are to trouble the Toon then the excellent Pedro Neto will be to the fore and their outlet down that right flank where he should fancy his chances one-on-one with Dan Burn. Only Kaoru Mitoma has progressed the ball more than Neto (1,283m) in the Premier League this season among non-defenders and he’s already provided six assists.
The 7/2 with Sky Bet dangled about his chances of another certainly appeals.
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David Moyes only remains as West Ham manager because of his ability to conjure up wins against bottom-half teams at home in the Premier League. When the pressure was cranked up after Christmas with the Hammers sitting precariously in the relegation zone, Moyes managed to lead his team through choppy waters by beating Everton, Southampton, Nottingham Forest and Leeds. Then followed the European success and life looks rosy under Moyes’ watch – for now.
That strong record against bottom half teams does make the 11/10 with Sky Bet on a West Ham home rather tempting.
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Everton are on improving now they have a focal point in attack but their limitations remain rather obvious. Stylistically, this game may struggle to burst into life when assessing the way both managers like to go about it. Just eight goals have been scored in the last six meetings between Moyes and Sean Dyche teams, including two 0-0 draws. A West Ham victory in a game where under 3.5 goals lands at 2/1 with Sky Bet does look an avenue to explore.
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I love watching Brighton play football – they bring me so much joy, especially when they carry my cash. But I left my emotions at the door years ago when it comes to trying to make sound betting decisions and they are so easily opposable in this one.
“We are playing a different sport this season and we are losing too many players. I think we are not ready to compete in this competition,” Roberto De Zerbi said last weekend.
De Zerbi is still getting a tune out of his players – especially in forward areas – but a lack of cohesion, probably down to a lack of time on the training field under their supreme coach, is making Brighton’s high risk-reward football edge towards the riskier edge of the spectrum.
Before Thursday night, they had shipped 24 goals in their 12 matches across all competitions this season with no clean sheet in their last 16 matches across the summer.
This type of defensive output is quite scary when you asses the strength of their win price in the markets. Despite shipping two goals per game over a healthy sample size, they remain readily available at prices like 1/2 with Sky Bet.
With that fixture coming just three days after the Ajax encounter – one that De Zerbi will be prioritising – it should prove a profitable strategy to put faith in Fulham on the double chance market at 6/4. Remember, Brighton did lose both fixtures against Marco Silva’s well-structured side last season and have never beaten them in six Premier League meetings.
With such slim pickings on show in the main markets owing to the likely one-sided nature of the contest heading to the player fouls committed market could be the answer to locking in a winning bet.
Luton striker Carlton Morris is the focal point for Rob Edwards as he is the target for most of their direct balls played into the final third. This leads to him becoming involved in a high proportion of duels which has seen him make 11 fouls in his last six games. He will be in direct contact with Villa defender Ezri Konsa, who has won 20 fouls himself in his last seven appearances – a monstrous figure for a centre-back. Morris is likely to be nibbling, so the Evens on offer for him to make two or fouls should land quite comfortably.
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Sky Bet’s decision to offer up a market that allows us to take a punt on how many times a certain player is fouled is excellent news for Ryan Gravenberch backers. The early data is pointing towards the Bayern Munich player being a foul drawing king yet his prices don’t really mirror that meaning we’re get a chunky price on his numbers.
He’s already been fouled 12 times in his five starts for Liverpool, drawing three in the first half of the Merseyside derby last weekend. It’s 13/2 with Sky Bet to repeat that figure here – or those that like to play a little safer should be tempted by the 7/4 for him to be fouled two or more times.
This feels like a case of not if Manchester City win, but by how many.
As my colleague Adam Bate referenced in his weekly debrief column: “United continue to look like a side searching for something that is missing. The style of play is unclear. The uncertainty in their game is alarming at times.”
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With such a lack of balance in their midfield added to limited unity or cohesion in the heart of their backline, someone is going to give them a good walloping before long. You can’t keep performing this badly and avoid the repercussions, especially when one of the greatest teams in Premier League history rock up at your door. The problem for those looking to jump on a City hammering is that they rarely go for the thrashing – it’s more death by possession.
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So, instead of taking the 9/2 with Sky Bet on City winning by three or more goals, I would rather back a goalscorer at a bigger price. Rodri, who must enter conversations as being the best player on the planet such is his influence on this team, looks a delicious price at 7/1 to score.
His attacking output has spiked in the last 12 months, culminating in that winning goal in the Champions League final. A threat from set pieces and from distance, Rodri has three goals already this campaign in his 12 appearances. He might just be one of many City players to feast at Old Trafford.
Correctly predict six scorelines to win £250,000 for free with Super 6. Entries by 3pm Saturday.
Correctly predict six scorelines to win £250,000 for free with Super 6. Entries by 3pm Saturday.
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