Tayo Oke
Godwin Nogheghase Obaseki was, until June 16, 2020, the Governor of Edo State on the platform of the All Progressives Congress. He has resigned his membership of the party in protest at his de-selection by the party’s hierarchy. Former Lagos State Governor, Akinwunmi Ambode (2015-2019), had suffered the same fate before him. Governor Rotimi Akeredolu is being threatened with the same ignominious outcome by the party in Ondo State. Obaseki’s case underlines all three and it portends ominous consequences for the APC. All three had considered themselves “performing governors”, deserving of second terms in office, but all fell out of favour with their party by the end of their first term. The question is, who should determine whether a governor gets a second term in office? The party or the electorate? In an ideal world, it should naturally be the electorate because the mandate to govern belongs to the individual, and not the party. That said, political parties play a crucial role in advancing the careers of politicians; they not only provide the vehicle for the smooth (or sometimes rough) ride to office, they also supply the manifesto that forms the contract between the governor and the governed.
As important as they are, political parties are also notorious for harbouring all types of intrigues and shenanigans within their ranks. Party hierarchies from time to time create and maintain disparate interests and often pander to differing ideological bents. A good political party operates as a “broad church”, where everyone swears allegiance to the same God, but that is easier said than done. Should an elected governor mortgage his mandate to the political party that sponsored him? Should party apparatchik hold sway over the wider interest of the electorate? Who should be the final arbiter of the public interest in a state: the governor or the party? Perhaps, most importantly, should a governor be free from the shackles of his political party once elected? These are all questions politicians do not usually have answers to in advance, but have to grapple with in office, as they arise. They are issues that touch on policy, manifesto, trust, personality and, (for want of a better word), man-management. Political parties in Western democracies have the benefit of their century-long histories and traditions to guide them through stormy weathers. Nigeria’s current political dispensation (1999-2020) is palpably short on that front. And, the APC, born only in 2014, finds itself a baby throwing tantrums in an expensive toy shop.
The above provides the lens through which the current travails of the APC should be dissected. Adams Aliyu Oshiomhole, the suspended national chairman of the party, is the man in the eye of the storm – again. He had tried to engineer the sacking of his erstwhile comrade-in-arms, Governor Obaseki, for numerous reasons, the bottom line of which is that he did not feel Obaseki had performed well enough to get a second term. In doing this, Oshiomhole had also tried to borrow a leaf from Tinubu and the Ambode scenario in Lagos. Though, widely acknowledged as a “performing governor”, Ambode, nevertheless, was adjudged to have overstepped the line by taking a swipe (albeit indirectly) at Tinubu and his management (control if you like) of the party machine in Lagos. Ambode had tried to unshackle himself from the palsied grip of the Lagos APC and be captain of his own ship. He got it wrong for, by not kow-towing to the exigencies of the party machine in Lagos, he willy-nilly bit more than he could chew, and was promptly subjected to a primary which he lost. Heavens did not fall in; however, Babajide Sanwo-Olu was put up in place of him, and the APC was returned with a thumping majority. This is the Tinubu playbook from which Oshiomhole had apparently tried in vain to emulate in Edo State. Unfortunately, Obaseki’s exit on such spurious APC charges against him has left a dent on the party’s image as an even-handed referee in Edo State and beyond. Similar moves are being contemplated in respect of Governor Akeredolu in Ondo State. That too is bound to end in yet another fine mess for the APC. Why is this, you might ask? What makes the Lagos surgical operation the exception to the hullaballoo elsewhere?
Let me say again, categorically, that Oshiomhole is a spent force in the APC politics. He assumed the leadership of the party in 2018 promising “party supremacy” over all other considerations, but he is glaringly lacking in political nous unlike the wily Tinubu in Lagos. The trade union leader’s impulse in him remains his abiding strength and singular weakness. Fighting for a just cause is the revolutionary swansong for a trade union leader, whereas, consensus building is the democratic sine-qua-non for a party chairman. “Comrade Oshiomhole” has failed to make the important transition from one to the other. In March of this year, this column referred to him thus: “This poacher turned game keeper is, himself, about to be thrown to the wolves…” (See; “Oshiomhole: The emperor with no clothes”, The PUNCH March 17, 2020).The Appeal Court decision upholding his suspension from the party lends credence to this assertion, but it will get worse for him. As an outside observer, however, I think it is outrageous that the national party chairman of a major political party could literally be ambushed by his (miniscule) local branch this way. In my view, all party registrations should be done centrally before being transferred back to the local wards. That would be my advice to both the PDP and the APC going forward. But, that is beside the point right now.
Let me make a prediction for the Edo and Ondo primaries and subsequent elections later this year. Barring a major electoral malfeasance, the APC will lose both if they force the incumbents out at the primaries. This is simply because the Lagos scenario does not apply to neither. As stated earlier, political parties in the West rely on their long history and tradition to help them through difficult times. The APC (as an offshoot of Alliance for Democracy and Action Congress) has built up a longer history (almost 20 years) of unbroken governance and party management in Lagos that made it possible to exert “supremacy” over the then Governor Ambode. No comparable party longevity exists in either Edo or Ondo State where party loyalty remains flaky at best.
Finally, are the ongoing developments good or bad for the country? The answer is a bit of both I am afraid. First, it cannot be a good thing for the ruling party to be in such disarray as we see in the APC currently. It weakens governance and sends the wrong signal to the financial community.
On the other hand, Nigerian democracy is still a work in progress. Democracy comes in a package: the good, the bad, and the ugly all rolled into one. And, if you think democracy is too much of a burden, then, let us revert to dictatorship. Let us wake up General Sani Abacha from his residence, six feet down, to resume where he left off, shall we?
