Tayo Oke
It is generally believed in Western democracies that elections have consequences, and in many instances they do. Take, for instance, the election of Boris Johnson, the Conservative British Prime Minister, in 2019, under the slogan, Get Brexit Done. Following a huge parliamentary majority, Brexit indeed happened and it has resulted in a remarkable turnaround in the ordinary lives of the UK citizens and their relationship with the rest of Europe in particular. New trade deals are still being negotiated between the UK and many countries around the world, a new UK passport has come into being and Britain is, once again, trying to re-assert itself as an influential power within the Western alliance. All tied to the election. Another example is the election of the current president, Joe Biden, in the US, whose Democratic Party’s own catchy slogan was Build Back Better coupled with a new direction in both domestic and foreign policy. An economic stimulus package worth $1.9 trillion has since been pushed through Congress and new multilateral diplomacy to deal with international crises has taken the centre stage in contrast with the isolationist and unpredictable atmosphere of Biden’s predecessor, Donald Trump. Similar scenarios can be identified in Canada, Germany, France, Japan, Australia etc. All pointing to the consequential nature of elections. By contrast, elections change nothing in Nigeria, though not for the reasons you think.
The cynic in the average Nigerian often leads him to write off elections as nothing but a charade. “It is all manipulation,” “Votes don’t count,” “Winner is known even before the vote,” “Too much ballot stuffing,” etc. These heartrending lines, and more, have become the received wisdom for many Nigerians disillusioned about the possibility of politics as a tool for advancing change. But, none of the above is the real reason why elections don’t have consequences in Nigeria. The received wisdom in Western democratic systems is that the opposition does not win elections; the government loses it. In other words, a government’s record in office, not the opposition’s manifesto, is the decisive factor. It is what motivates the electorate to cast their ballot. There is a connection; a symbiotic relationship between government record and electoral mandate. The social security system has seen to it that hunger and empty belly can no longer be used to bait the electorate. So, there is a substantial focus on governance and nation-building during elections than it is in less affluent, less developed economies such as Nigeria. Be that as it may, it is still not the whole story.
The present APC regime campaigned under the mantra, Change, in 2015, which people interpreted to mean a change from bad to good governance. Although the substance of ‘change’ was not spelt out by the party, the electorate could not have imagined that it meant anything other than the promise of a marked improvement in their standard of living. So, when the electorate was called upon to render a verdict four years later, in 2019, it was widely thought that four years were not enough to judge a regime given that the previous one was in power for sixteen consecutive years. Another opportunity to render a verdict now beckons next year, in 2023. This time, there is no question that the electorate is entitled to ask whether they are better off in 2023 than they were in 2015 when the APC first came into office. For that, let us have a quick glance at a few “bread and butter” issues. A bag of rice (50kg) was N10k in 2015, it is now N30k+. Petrol was N87/Ltr in 2015, it is now N165/Ltr and rising. Diesel was N151/Ltr in 2015, it is now N650/Ltr. Cooking Gas (12.5kg) was N2,800 in 2015, it is now N8,500. Inflation was 9.3% in 2015, it is now 15.7%. Foreign Debt was $10bn in 2015, it is now $38bn. Domestic Debt was N12tn in 2015, it is now N22.4tn. The stimulus package in the US has helped stabilise the people’s economic well-being in general but has led to consumer price inflation currently standing at 7.5%. Still a relatively low (single digit) compared to Nigeria’s double digits inflation. You would think, what is the big deal in a 7.5% inflation rate when the rest of the economy is turbo-charging? No big deal except that it was 1.23% when Biden took office in January 2021.
In the US as in Nigeria, the effect of inflation is not something the government can easily sugar-coat. In a recent “CBS/YouGov” opinion poll of Americans, 58% said Biden was not focused on the economy enough. And, in a CNN poll, 7 in 10 Americans think the Biden administration is not doing enough to bring inflation down. After just one year in office, the electorate is already impatient. Only 40% approve of the job Biden is doing as president, 54% disapprove, according to the latest Reuters/Ipsos survey. There is a midterm Congressional election coming up next year. Biden’s party, the Democrats, are likely to lose their slim majorities in both Houses, making him a lame duck for the rest of the term. And, in Nigeria, has anyone conducted a survey to find out exactly what the public is feeling and thinking across a whole range of economic issues? The answer is no, otherwise, references would have been made to it in this write up as well. There is no scientific measure of public opinion in the way that plugs straight into governance in Nigeria as it is in Western democracies, where such surveys dominate the headlines and provide the rallying point for political debate and policy choices.
Consequently, the political elites in Nigeria are shielded from accountability in any meaningful way. What is dominating the headlines in the run-up to the 2023 elections in Nigeria are the spurious “zoning formulas” of APC and PDP, in addition to the religious and ethnic colouration of the respective candidates for office. For those who have their fingers on the pulse of the electorate, they would find that condemnation of the government for its numerous failings is almost universal. But, wait, three months to the election, however, the aggrieved citizens will be offered (and accept) bags of rice, gallons of vegetable oil and N5k in exchange for their votes. That then constitutes their own dividends of democracy. Put another way, the citizens become ‘co-conspirators’ in their own slow death. They become active enablers of fly-by-night politicking as they, too, rationalise acceptance of election bounties as emanating from the collective purse: It is our money after all. The party that manages to disburse such largesse in larger quantities wins. Never mind the groaning and suffering the same citizens will come back to endure for the duration of the electoral cycle.
You see, direct electoral fraud at polling stations play some part in winning and losing but it has never been the decisive factor in any event, at least, not as potent as the careful manipulation of the hungry belly. It is only the poor politician that hones his political strategy on voter fraud; the smart politician understands the psychology of the poor and destitute, as such a person does not have the luxury of waiting for tomorrow and for grandiose programmes for nation-building. As Nigeria faces the biggest fall in living standards since independence, the focus for the transactional voter nonetheless, remains today, here and now. This needs not to be so though; things could be different. Edmund Burke once noted, “the only condition necessary for the triumph of evil is for men of goodwill to do nothing.”
The alarm bell is ringing out for the good men and women in Nigeria to step up to the plate, to stand up and be counted now.
