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Lekan Sote
Though Bola Tinubu, former Governor of Lagos State and National Leader of the ruling All Progressives Congress, denies intention to run for President in 2023, there is everything in his body language that suggests otherwise.
After grandly declaring, “I have no decision regarding 2023,” he threw a curve, “2023 will answer its own question in due time.” If that is not a subtle hint about his intention to run, nothing will ever be.
This speculation compels the need to find out if he has a national political structure that can carry his vision to all the nook and cranny of Nigeria. In case you don’t understand, political structure in Nigeria means grassroots mobilisers- the mix of city-fathers, faithful, stalwarts, “alright sirs,” and women supporters, clad in “aso ebi.”
An effective political campaigner must have “boots on the ground,” to make significant impact on the day of election. Although MKO Abiola, presumed winner of the June 12, 1993 presidential election, might not have had political structures everywhere, he had sufficient goodwill.
Uche Achi-Okpaga, National Publicity Secretary of Ohanaeze Ndigbo, recently reminded everyone that, “The presidency of Nigeria, no doubt, is not what a particular tribe or geopolitical zone can aspire to get without reaching out to other zones.”
Erm, Uche must remember that Section 134(5) of Nigeria’s Constitution provides that “In default of a candidate duly elected (with a majority of votes cast in the election (and having) not less than one quarter of the votes cast… in each of at least two-thirds of all the States in the Federation and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja), a candidate shall be deemed to have been duly elected to the office of the President if he has a (simple) majority of the votes cast at the election.”
It is reasonable to speculate that Tinubu has men on the ground, at least in Lagos State, where he has a coterie of young Turk politicians, referred to as “Tinubu Boys,” if not in the entire South-West Nigeria, and the westerly corridor of the South-South.
Prominent political figures, including Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, and House of Representatives Speaker, Femi Gbajabiamila, who were discovered and nurtured by Tinubu, are now like “jewels and bright ornaments,” displayed around his neck in the manner described by Prophet Isaiah of the Christian scriptures.
This is so, even if some, who are finicky for details, would want to insist that while Vice President Osinbajo might have been nurtured, mentored and nominated for the position he occupies by Tinubu, it was actually a former Minister for Justice and Attorney General of the Federation, Bola Ajibola, who discovered and exposed him.
Osinbajo started his political trajectory as an adviser on legal and litigation matters to Ajibola, under the regime of Ibrahim Babangida, who later nominated Ajibola as a Judge to the International Court of Justice, better known as the World Court, at The Hague, in The Netherlands.
Other visible Tinubu protégés are Babatunde Fashola, a former Lagos State Governor, currently Minister of Works and Housing in the regime of the President, Major General Muhammadu Buhari (retd.). He started out as Chief of Staff to Governor Tinubu.
Another is Minister of the Interior, Rauf Aregbesola, erstwhile Governor of what he refers to as the State of Osun. Aregbesola had been Commissioner for Works when Tinubu was Lagos State Governor.
There are a legion of others: Lai Mohammed, Minister of Information and Culture, who was the first Chief of Staff to Tinubu. And then, of course, others, like former Speaker of the Lagos State House of Assembly, Adeyemi Ikuforiji, current Speaker, Mudashiru Obasa, and the slew of current and former members of the state House of Assembly.
Dele Aláké, a constant in the Tinubu firmament, deserves a special mention. After serving as Tinubu’s Commissioner of the esoterically named Ministry of Information and Strategy, Dele now functions almost as ambassador extraordinary and plenipotentiary of the Tinubu political family.
However, there is somewhat of a crack in the political family, as well as with some possible associates: Some think Iba Gani Adams, Aare Ona Kakanfo of Yorùbáland, gave Tinubu a most unkind cut by suggesting that Tinubu is not quite a fan of restructuring, the mantra of the mainstream Yoruba politics.
Dr. Muiz Banire, Tinubu’s Commissioner for Transportation, who was tactically excused from a sinecure as Chairman of Assets Management Corporation of Nigeria recently, may need to speak up, if he is not one of the members of the Tinubu political family that is out of the political deck of cards.
It is instructive to note that some who left have been recalled, however: Femi Pedro, Tinubu’s second Deputy Governor, has been reinstated to favour. Former Governor Akinwunmi Ambode, still peeping in from the fringe, hopes his day of reconciliation will be soon.
And that anyone who thinks the APC state governors will work for Tinubu has not heard Kaduna State Governor, Nasir el-Rufai, say, “If a (Nigerian) politician contests a position, and he doesn’t get it, he will not support the party member that got the nomination.”
El-Rufai continued: “(The loser) will rather move to the opposition, and ensure that the person that defeated him… loses the election.” If erstwhile political stablemates spoil the chances of their party’s candidate, you can imagine the damage that political opponents will wrought.
The interrogation of who, and where are, the Tinubu Boys, is necessary in the face of speculation that the ouster of Adams Oshiomhole from the position of National Chairman of the All Progressives Congress may adversely affect the chances of Tinubu emerging as the party’s presidential candidate in 2023.
The position of chairman of a political party is strategic to the emergence of an aspirant to any elective office. Baba Gana Kingibe almost used his position as Chairman of the Social Democratic Party to wrest the presidential candidacy from MKO Abiola in 1993.
His eventual emergence as Abiola’s running mate was certainly boosted by the SDP governors who wanted to compensate him for being instrumental to their emergence as governorship candidates, and for winning the elections in their home states.
If you go by the decidedly negative narrative against the presidential ambition of Tinubu, in some quarters, you will likely come away with the impression that there is no ecumenical or national platform that Tinubu can work with.
But when you remember that Tinubu has a purse of royalty that often works wonders, you will agree with those who suggest that if he can deploy his vast resource to ensure that his “friends” are elected as officers in the forthcoming APC state, local government, and ward congresses, he stands a good chance of clinching the oyster.
But that won’t be easy. Others will be working with the same template. An unidentified APC chieftain says, “No… chieftain of the party will sit by and allow those who are not loyal to him to emerge as officials. That would amount to digging his own grave.”
So, if you roll the APC presidential candidate dice, the sixies can go anyway.
– Twitter @lekansote1
