We’re now in the business end of the 2023-24 season and we’ve worked out how the Premier League table is projected to finish based on points per game.
Given how tight things currently are around the top of the table, we could be in for one of the greatest title races of all time. As things stand, just one point separates Manchester City in third with Arsenal in first place.
The top three Premier League sides have been in a league of their own this season, each averaging over 2.20 points per game.
Given there’s barely been anything to separate them in the league so far, the Premier League table is projected to be extremely close come the end of the campaign.
Following Liverpool playing out a 1-1 draw with Man City at Anfield, Arsenal are now projected to win the title based on their points per game record and superior goal difference to Liverpool.
The Gunners have averaged 2.28 points per game this season and are projected to finish the season with 87 points. While Liverpool are also on track to finish with 87 points, Arsenal have the advantage in the title race with their superior goal difference.
Pep Guardiola’s men aren’t too far behind either. They have averaged 2.25 points per game and are projected to finish the season with 86 points as things stand.
Elsewhere, the race for the top four is set to go right down to the wire. Following Tottenham’s 4-0 hammering of Aston Villa, they now have the edge in the race for Champions League football.
Both Ange Postecoglou’s side and Unai Emery’s men are projected to finish the season with 75 points, but Tottenham’s superior goal difference would be enough to get them over the line in fourth place.
Manchester United are quite far behind the pace when it comes to the top four chase as they have only averaged 1.67 points per game. If they continue to pick up points at their current rate, Erik ten Hag’s men will finish the campaign with just 64 points.
At the opposite end of the table, all three of the newly promoted sides are projected to finish in the bottom three. However, potential point deductions for Nottingham Forest and Everton could change things.
We’ve taken a closer look at each Premier League club and how many points per game they have averaged so far. Using these figures, we have then projected how many points each club is currently projected to finish the season with.
Note: if two clubs are tied for points we have used goal difference to separate them.
1. Arsenal – 2.28PPG = 87 points
2. Liverpool – 2.28PPG = 87 points
3. Man City – 2.25PPG = 86 points
4. Tottenham – 1.96PPG = 75 points
5. Aston Villa – 1.96PPG = 75 points
6. Man Utd – 1.67PPG = 64 points
7. West Ham – 1.53PPG = 58 points
8. Brighton – 1.5PPG = 57 points
9. Newcastle – 1.48PPG = 56 points
10. Wolves – 1.46PPG = 55 points
11. Chelsea – 1.38PPG = 53 points
12. Fulham – 1.25PPG = 48 points
13. Bournemouth = 1.18PPG = 45 points
14. Crystal Palace = 1.03PPG = 39 points
15. Everton = 1.1PPG = 36 points (including 6 point deduction)
16. Brentford = 0.92PPG = 35 points
17. Nottingham Forest = 0.86PPG = 33 points
18. Luton Town = 0.77PPG = 30 points
19. Burnley = 0.5PPG = 19 points
20. Sheffield United = 0.5PPG = 19 points
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