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Football Journalist
Sunday 17 March 2024 20:02, UK
Our tipster Jones Knows takes aim at the weekend action across the Premier League and FA Cup, offering up his insight and betting analysis.
Chelsea’s attack is purring right now. They are in trustworthy mood. In their last eight Premier League games, Chelsea have scored 2.1 goals per game, overperforming their expected goals by about 0.47 per game, which is a complete flip to the period between August and January where they regularly underperformed their xG in front of goal. It’s starting to click for Maurico Pochettino and they could be in line to make another major cup final.
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Leicester head here in a strange spot – is this a game they really need? They are wobbling slightly in the Championship, winning just one of their last five and conceding two goals in four of those matches. Ipswich and Leeds are hunting them down, so I’m not sure this is a helpful game for them. Chelsea to win and over 3.5 goals at 2/1 with Sky Bet rates as a decent wager.
Ollie Watkins remains a player of interest in the goalscorer markets against teams outside the “big six” – it was no surprise he drew a blank vs Tottenham last week as his record against elite opposition is now just six goals in 17 appearances.
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However, he is a killer when it comes to scoring against non “big six” teams where his record of 23 goals in 35 games under Unai Emery is fantastic. That works out at a goal every 132 minutes and he is a massive runner to find the net in this one at the odds we can play at. I’d advise a close look at both the 5/1 with Sky Bet on him scoring first and the 6/4 on offer for him to score anytime.
Regular readers will know all about the sustainable edge we’ve been exploiting this season regarding Manchester United’s ability to ship corners. The market still hasn’t noticed, which is great news here where the Liverpool corner line is very backable.
United’s 10-game Premier League average of corners conceded now stands at 8.3 per 90 minutes after Everton surpassed the market’s expected line and won eight at Old Trafford on Saturday.
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But that corner-conceded average rises to a completely bonkers 11.5 corners conceded in the last seven games against the top five in the Premier League.
They shipped 10 away at Villa, 13 at home to Spurs, six at home to Villa, 12 away at Liverpool, 12 at home to Man City, 12 at Arsenal and a staggering 15 in the recent league game with Man City – 12 coming in the first half.
United do have a tendency under Erik ten Hag to stay in matches despite giving up so much territory and possession, so I can see Liverpool racking up plenty of corners as they hunt a way through. Jurgen Klopp’s men are averaging 6.9 corners per 90 this season, and have won seven or more corners in 25 of their 44 matches, so a 55 per cent strike. When you factor in the opposition and their woeful corners against record averages, getting 5/4 with Sky Bet on Liverpool winning seven or more corners is a real gift.
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