Football
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Football Journalist
Saturday 7 October 2023 19:34, UK
Our tipster Jones Knows takes aim at the Premier League action, unleashing his predictions and betting angles across an exciting weekend.
Grab some popcorn. Settle in for some box office action.
Regular readers (hello mum) will be aware of my tendency to side with Brighton when priced up as outsiders, but I’m resisting the urge here as Liverpool’s firepower is just too hot to ignore. The lack of chemistry and balance in the Brighton midfield is causing huge issues for them in conceding an alarming amount of high probability chances.
That’s led to 14 goals conceded in their seven Premier League games and with a emotionally sapping 2-2 draw in Marseille still fresh in the legs, I’m worried for them against Jurgen Klopp’s attack, who have scored in their last 20 games in all competitions and at least three times in seven of their last 11 fixtures. The 11/10 with Sky Bet on an away win looks one of the best bets of the weekend.
You know what’s coming: yup, opposition offside lines vs Aston Villa. The Unai Emery offside trap remains a thing of beauty, especially in away games. Chelsea were caught offside 10, yes, 10 times in their 1-0 defeat to Villa. That’s now 54 offsides against in their last 10 away games, with six of those matches seeing the opposition hit six or more offsides. Even though the bookmakers are adjusting their prices, it remains a frightening edge to attack. You can get 11/10 with Sky Bet on Wolves being caught offside four or more times with the highest line available six or more at 4/1.
Pedro Neto has yet to be caught offside this season but he’ll be playing right on the Villa line down the right, looking to burst in behind like he did to superb effect in the win over Manchester City. He is 5/6 to be caught offside at least once and 4/1 to be flagged two or more times.
My early season worries for Newcastle not being able to hit the heights of last season have eroded. The edge to their play is back – as seen in their intense win over PSG, where they ran all over the French side. That edge is breeding much more confidence and solidity within their defensive structure, which is once again flourishing, keeping five clean sheets in their last six games with only a solitary goal conceded.
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This will be a tricky trip to east London, but one where energy levels might be flagging across both sets of players considering their European exploits. Defences will be to the fore and one goal might be enough to nick this either way, so it was surprising to see under 2.5 goals available to back at 11/10 with Sky Bet.
It’s very rare we’re given the opportunity to back Manchester City at an odds-against price in any competition.
That speaks volumes for the high regard Arsenal are held in – and rightly so, they are a fantastically constructed side with the physicality in key areas to go toe-to-toe with Pep Guardiola’s men. However, do they possess the required mental prowess to stop City doing what they usually do against Arsenal? City have won the last 12 Premier League meetings and all the performance metrics this season are still screaming for them being, clearly, the best team in this Premier League. No Rodri does temper my enthusiasm slightly in getting stuck into the 11/8 with Sky Bet, but for an outright prediction it must be an away win when assessing the prices.
Julian Alvarez to score from outside the box is most certainly worth a mention at 12/1 with Sky Bet, too.
Since Kevin De Bruyne’s injury, Alvarez is taking up a huge amount of responsibility, especially from dead ball situations. Overall, he’s had 16 shots from outside the box in all competitions this season, nine on target with seven of those being direct free kicks. In fact, of his total goals output of six the average distance he’s scoring from is 18.3 yards, with two of those goals coming from outside the box, showcasing his devastating accuracy from range.
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