Taking a break from a fairytale Premier League title challenge, Aston Villa head to the Riverside Stadium for an FA Cup third-round date with Middlesbrough on Saturday evening.
The Lions ended 2023 as they mean to go on with a nervy 3-2 success over Burnley in the top flight, while their hosts were most recently defeated 3-1 at home by Coventry City in the Championship.
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A one-time FA Cup champion with Manchester United in the 2015-16 season, Middlesbrough head coach Michael Carrick prepares to oversee two successive knockout fixtures in the Boro dugout, as the Championship outfit also clash with Chelsea in the first leg of their EFL Cup semi-final on January 9.
However, with the Blues still entrenched in mid-table under Mauricio Pochettino, the weekend’s visit of Villa may be deemed a more daunting affair for the Riverside faithful, who have witnessed their side slump to two defeats from their last three contests in the second tier.
Either side of a 2-1 success away to Huddersfield Town, Carrick’s men suffered a surprise 1-0 Boxing Day defeat to Rotherham United and kicked off 2024 with a humbling loss to Coventry on New Year’s Day, where an opening Josh Coburn strike was ultimately in vain.
Tatsuhiro Sakamoto‘s brace and a Haji Wright effort denied the 12th-placed hosts the chance to rise closer to the coveted playoff line, but Middlesbrough will now consign their second-tier endeavours to the back of their minds as they bid to avoid another premature third-round FA Cup exit.
Carrick’s crop were beaten at this stage by Brighton & Hove Albion in the 2022-23 campaign and have only progressed past round three once since the 2018-19 term – going out to Chelsea in the 2021-22 quarter-finals – and each of their last five FA Cup third-round showdowns against Premier League teams have now ended in defeat.
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In the wake of a surprising home draw with Sheffield United and second-half capitulation against Manchester United – who came from two goals down to defeat Unai Emery‘s side 3-2 at Old Trafford on Boxing Day – the Lions’ title credentials would have truly been called into question had they failed to beat Burnley at their Villa Park headquarters.
Vincent Kompany‘s relegation scrappers were destined to come away with a point thanks to Zeki Amdouni and Lyle Foster, who cancelled out finishes from Leon Bailey and Moussa Diaby in the West Midlands, but with 89 minutes on the board, Douglas Luiz just about managed to crash a decisive penalty off the crossbar and over the line.
Villa’s unconvincing beating of the Clarets temporarily moved them above Arsenal and level on points with leaders Liverpool, and while they remain above the Gunners and the Citizens at this juncture, they now have a three-point gap to make up to the Reds thanks to their 4-2 beating of Newcastle United on New Year’s Day.
Whether Emery’s over-achieving crop can sustain an unfancied title push as the weather warms up remains to be seen, but they have plenty of wrongs to right in the FA Cup, where they have suffered an alarming seven-straight eliminations in the third round, including a shock loss to Stevenage at this point in 2022-23.
Should Villa be bested at the Riverside this weekend, they would become the first team in history to lose nine FA Cup games in a row while plying their trade in the top two divisions, but they have four wins and a draw to show from their last five battles with Boro, who have failed to score a single goal in that disheartening sequence.
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No fewer than three Middlesbrough players will be away from the Riverside for a number of weeks due to impending international commitments, starting with goalkeeper Seny Dieng, who has been called up to represent Senegal at the Africa Cup of Nations.
Australian duo Sam Silvera and Riley McGree are away on Asian Cup duty and were also unavailable for the loss to Coventry, where Carrick was left to bemoan his side’s unenviable absentee list, which includes no fewer than eight injured troops.
Achilles tendon victims Darragh Lenihan and Tom Smith will not play again this season, while Lewis O’Brien (ankle), Marcus Forss (thigh), Hayden Hackney (groin), Patrick McNair (back), Matt Crooks (discomfort) and Emmanuel Latte Lath (hamstring) are also in the care of the medical staff.
The hosts have already done business with their upcoming visitors in the January transfer window, signing midfielder Finn Azaz on a permanent deal, but he is not eligible for Saturday’s game.
Meanwhile, Aston Villa have only lost one first-team squad member to an AFCON call-up in the form of Burkina Faso winger Bertrand Traore, although the 28-year-old has been restricted to just six appearances this season due to injury anyway.
Tyrone Mings (knee), Emiliano Buendia (knee), Lucas Digne (thigh), Pau Torres (ankle), Youri Tielemans (calf) and Robin Olsen (knock) are set to miss the trip to the Riverside too, but Matty Cash (illness) will be in the squad.
On a brighter note, Boubacar Kamara has served his three-game ban and is eligible for selection once again, while Calum Chambers and Jhon Duran may also be considered for promotion to the first XI with the EFL Cup semi-finals in mind.
Middlesbrough possible starting lineup:
Glover; Van den Berg, Fry, Clarke, Bangura; Howson, Barlaser; Jones, Rogers, Greenwood; Coburn
Aston Villa possible starting lineup:
Martinez; Chambers, Konsa, Lenglet, Moreno; Zaniolo, McGinn, Kamara, Bailey; Duran, Watkins
The third-round curse has plagued Aston Villa for almost eight years now, but with Middlesbrough working around a personnel crisis, the Lions ought to avoid making unwanted history at the Riverside.
A recent lack of defensive discipline from the Lions offers Carrick’s decimated squad some hope of a surprise beating, but even with a few first-teamers rested, Emery’s men ought to reach the fourth round for the first time since the 2015-16 campaign.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
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