Seeking to close the gap to the Premier League summit, reigning champions Manchester City travel to St James’ Park to take on Newcastle United on Saturday evening.
Eleven points currently separate these two teams in the table, with the Citizens occupying third place and the Magpies sitting six positions further back in ninth.
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After ending 2023 with three consecutive defeats and then losing their opening game of the New Year 4-2 away against Liverpool, Newcastle eased the pressure beginning to mount on manager Eddie Howe by claiming a much-needed 3-0 away victory over Tyne-Wear rivals Sunderland in the FA Cup third round last weekend.
Howe was rewarded for naming a strong starting lineup, albeit somewhat forced upon him amid the club’s injury crisis, as an Alexander Isak brace followed a first-half own goal from Dan Ballard to help the Magpies claim the bragging rights over the Black Cats for the first time since 2011.
Newcastle will travel to Fulham in the fourth round later this month, but they must first shift their attention to Saturday’s contest with Man City, a side whom they beat 1-0 in their most recent meeting four months ago in the EFL Cup courtesy of a second-half strike from Isak.
The Magpies’ record against the Citizens in the Premier League leaves little to be desired, though, as they have only won one, drawn five and lost 26 of their last 32 top-flight encounters – their only triumph during this run being a 2-1 home win in January 2019.
Defeat on Saturday would represent Newcastle’s 10th of the campaign in the top flight, twice as many as they recorded in the entirety of last season, and they could slip 14 points behind the top four if other results go against them, severely hindering their hopes of securing Champions League football for next season.
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FA Cup holders Man City also secured a safe passage through to the fourth round after thrashing Championship outfit Huddersfield Town 5-0 at the Etihad Stadium last weekend, extending their unbeaten run in all competitions to eight matches.
Kevin De Bruyne stole the headlines after making his long-awaited return from injury, with the playmaker coming off the substitutes’ bench to set up fellow returnee Jeremy Doku for City’s fifth goal after a brace from Phil Foden, a strike from Julian Alvarez and an own goal from Ben Jackson had put the game to bed.
Before preparing for a tricky trip to Tottenham Hotspur in the fourth round later this month, Pep Guardiola‘s side are tasked with claiming maximum points in front of a fired-up St James’ Park faithful this weekend as they endeavour to close the five-point gap that currently separates them from Premier League leaders Liverpool, who have played a game more.
Following a challenging period towards the end of 2023, world champions Man City have since turned their fortunes around in impressive fashion in recent weeks, winning each of their last five games in all competitions by an aggregate score of 17-1.
The Citizens will be confident of further success on Saturday as they have won more matches (30), scored more goals (98) and kept more clean sheets (22) against Newcastle than they have versus any other opponent in their Premier League history.
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Newcastle boss Howe has confirmed that Joelinton is ruled out for a minimum of six weeks with a thigh injury sustained against Sunderland, and the Brazilian joins Callum Wilson, Matt Targett (both hamstring), Nick Pope, Jacob Murphy (both shoulder), Joe Willock (Achilles), Harvey Barnes (foot), Elliot Anderson (back) and Javi Manquillo (groin) in the treatment room.
The absence of Joelinton is set to see 17-year-old Lewis Miley, who made his senior debut for the Magpies in the aformentiioned EFL Cup win over Man City four months ago, handed a start in centre-midfield alongside Bruno Guimaraes and Sean Longstaff.
Fabian Schar extended his Newcastle contract earlier this week and is expected to continue in the back four alongside ex-Man City man Kieran Trippier, Sven Botman and Dan Burn, while a front three of Isak, Miguel Almiron and Anthony Gordon is set to remain intact.
As for Man City, Guardiola has confirmed that De Bruyne is ready to start his first match since August following his recovery from a hamstring injury, but Erling Haaland (foot) and John Stones (ankle) both remain sidelined, while Jack Grealish is a minor doubt due to illness.
Manuel Akanji is also a minor doubt after he was forced off in the first half against Huddersfield with a knee issue, although he has since returned to training this week, while Bernardo Silva and Kalvin Phillips missed the last match entirely due to illness, but they should be fit to return this weekend.
Kyle Walker and Nathan Ake are expected to be recalled in defence, with Ederson replacing Stefan Ortega between the sticks, while Rodri could be partnered in centre-midfield by either Mateo Kovacic or Rico Lewis.
The potential return of Bernardo could see the Portuguese replace Oscar Bobb on the right flank, joining in-form Foden – who has scored four goals in his last four matches – and Alvarez in the final third.
Newcastle United possible starting lineup:
Dubravka; Trippier, Schar, Botman, Burn; Longstaff, Guimaraes, Miley; Almiron, Isak, Gordon
Manchester City possible starting lineup:
Ederson; Walker, Dias, Ake, Gvardiol; Rodri, Kovacic; Bernardo, Foden, Grealish; Alvarez
Newcastle, who can ill-afford to drop too many more Premier League points if they wish to remain in contention for the European spots, have already beaten Man City on home soil this term and pushed them all the way in a 1-0 top-flight loss at the Etihad back in August, so they cannot be written off in front of a raucous atmosphere at St James’ Park.
However, the Citizens appear to have rediscovered their groove at the right time and have key players returning from injury. Taking that into account as well as their exceptional record against the Magpies, we believe that the champions will find a way to claim maximum points on Saturday.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
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