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NCAAF
Let’s call this an acclimation period: By now everyone should be aware the SEC is getting rid of divisions, adding Oklahoma and Texas and participating in an expanded College Football Playoff.
But do we know what this will all look and feel like?
Many reading this weren’t alive the last time the SEC didn’t have divisions (1991). Maybe a few were alive the last time there were this many teams: 1931, the last year of the Southern Conference before the SEC schools split away. There were 23 teams that year. Tulane was the conference champion, finishing 8-0, but didn’t have to face second-place Tennessee in a championship game. Third-place Alabama and fourth-place Georgia didn’t have a 12-team Playoff to play in.
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Things are about to be different. To show how different, we (meaning me, with input from a few colleagues) made game-by-game predictions for each of the SEC teams. The result was an unexpected first-place team, a three-way tie for second and a complicated picture for both who would play in the SEC championship and the CFP.
Let’s go wild. But not too wild. Generally, the effort was to defer to conventional wisdom and home-field advantage and pick who would be favored in each game. A couple of upsets were thrown in there, such as an unbeaten Texas losing its long-awaited return to College Station. And plenty of picks could go either way, especially with plenty of time left in the offseason. The main purpose is to give everyone an idea of how this season will look.
Here you go:
Wins: Western Kentucky, South Florida, at Wisconsin, at Vanderbilt, South Carolina, at Tennessee, Missouri, Mercer, at Oklahoma, Auburn.
Losses: Georgia, at LSU.
Record: 10-2 overall, 6-2 SEC.
Wins: Arkansas Pine-Bluff, UAB, at Mississippi State, Louisiana Tech.
Losses: at Oklahoma State, at Auburn, vs. Texas A&M (Arlington, Texas), Tennessee, LSU, Ole Miss, Texas, at Missouri.
Record: 4-8, 1-7.
Wins: Alabama A&M, California, New Mexico, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, UL-Monroe, Texas A&M.
Losses: Oklahoma, at Georgia, at Missouri, at Kentucky, at Alabama.
Record: 7-5, 3-5.
Wins: Miami, Samford, Texas A&M, Kentucky, UCF.
Losses: at Mississippi State, at Tennessee, vs. Georgia (Jacksonville), at Texas, LSU, Ole Miss, at Florida State.
Record: 5-7, 2-6.
Wins: vs. Clemson (Atlanta), Tennessee Tech, at Kentucky, at Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State, vs. Florida (Jacksonville), at Ole Miss, Tennessee, UMass, Georgia Tech.
Loss: at Texas.
Record: 11-1, 7-1.
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Wins: Southern Miss, South Carolina, Ohio, Vanderbilt, Auburn, Murray State, Louisville.
Losses: Georgia, at Ole Miss, at Florida, at Tennessee, at Texas.
Record: 7-5, 3-5.
Wins: Southern Cal (Las Vegas), Nicholls State, at South Carolina, UCLA, South Alabama, Ole Miss, at Arkansas, at Texas A&M, Alabama, at Florida, Vanderbilt, Oklahoma.
Record: 12-0, 8-0.
Wins: Furman, Middle Tennessee, at Wake Forest, Georgia Southern, Kentucky, at South Carolina, Oklahoma, at Arkansas, at Florida, Mississippi State.
Losses: at LSU, Georgia.
Record: 10-2, 6-2.
Wins: Eastern Kentucky, Toledo, Florida, UMass.
Losses: at Arizona State, at Texas, at Georgia, Texas A&M, Arkansas, at Tennessee, Missouri, at Ole Miss.
Record: 4-8, 1-7.
Wins: Murray State, Buffalo, Boston College, Vanderbilt, at Texas A&M, UMass, Auburn, Oklahoma, at South Carolina, at Mississippi State, Arkansas.
Loss: at Alabama.
Record: 11-1, 7-1.
Wins: Temple, Houston, Tulane, Tennessee, at Auburn, South Carolina, Maine.
Losses: vs. Texas (Dallas), at Ole Miss, at Missouri, Alabama, at LSU.
Record: 7-5, 3-5.
Wins: Old Dominion, Akron, Texas A&M, at Vanderbilt, Wofford.
Losses: at Kentucky, LSU, Ole Miss, at Alabama, at Oklahoma, Missouri, at Clemson.
Record: 5-7, 2-6.
Wins: UT Chattanooga, vs. NC State (Charlotte), Kent State, at Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, UTEP, at Vanderbilt.
Losses: at Oklahoma, Alabama, at Georgia.
Record: 9-3, 5-3.
Wins: Colorado State, at Michigan, UTSA, UL-Monroe, Mississippi State, vs. Oklahoma (Dallas), Georgia, at Vanderbilt, Florida, at Arkansas, Kentucky.
Loss: at Texas A&M.
Record: 11-1, 7-1.
Wins: McNeese State, Bowling Green, vs. Arkansas (Arlington, Texas), at Mississippi State, New Mexico State, Texas.
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Losses: Notre Dame, at Florida, Missouri, LSU, at South Carolina, at Auburn.
Record: 6-6, 3-5.
Wins: Alcorn State, at Georgia State, Ball State.
Losses: Virginia Tech, Missouri, Alabama, at Kentucky, Texas, at Auburn, South Carolina, at LSU, Tennessee.
Record: 3-9, 0-8.
LSU, unbeaten? Yeah, it seems a stretch. But there’s no Georgia or Texas on the schedule. The toughest games (Alabama, Ole Miss and Oklahoma) are at home.
Similarly, are we this high on Missouri? Not exactly, but the schedule makes it easier to look like it. No Georgia, Texas or LSU. It gets Oklahoma at home.
The flip side: This down on Arkansas? Not particularly, and would feel a lot better picking the Razorbacks to be 4-4 in the conference. But there’s no Vanderbilt, or even Florida. And yes, we are down on the Gators, but that down? If we were picking a general record range for Florida, as well as Arkansas and Oklahoma, we’d be more generous. But the task here was to pick the individual games and let the records fall where they may.
As for Alabama, yes it got dinged here for no longer having the GOAT head coach. The Georgia game was specifically flipped, and it was tempting to pick Tennessee, with that game in Knoxville.
LSU vs. … ???
The SEC hasn’t announced its tiebreakers. But those are not expected to diverge much from the current ones to determine the division champions. The above scenario would be a three-way tie. The first tiebreaker in the division era was head-to-head record among the teams, and in this case, the only head-to-head matchup was Texas beating Georgia. So the Longhorns would get it … if that is the tiebreaker.
But when the Pac-12 (R.I.P.) got rid of divisions before the 2022 season, it tweaked its formula to say that if not everyone involved in a three-way (or more) tie has played each other, that tiebreaker is not invoked. The Pac-12’s next tiebreaker is record among common opponents. The teams all three teams have played. But that was just one team — Mississippi State — and all three won. That also covers the next tiebreaker, so it then goes to the fourth one: “Combined win percentage in conference games of conference opponents (i.e., the strength of conference schedule).”
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In that case:
Georgia: 33-31
Texas: 20-44
Missouri: 19-45
So Georgia wins that tiebreaker. Then again, in the new CFP system, did the Bulldogs want to win the tiebreaker?
The top four conference champions will get the top four seeds and byes into the quarterfinals. So there is motivation to get to Atlanta. The game will still have meaning, with the LSU-Georgia winner getting a valuable bye.
But it could be argued that by losing, Georgia would endanger its Playoff spot — or at least fall out of getting a home game in the first round. Would it be better to not play in the game at all and preserve that one-loss record as Texas and Missouri (both 11-1) are doing in this scenario? There could be two-loss teams that risk taking a third loss in the SEC championship. Coaches have been wondering aloud about that, hinting they would prefer to give their players a week of rest rather than play in a game that could hurt more than help their case.
Meanwhile, what about the case for other at-large teams? Carrying this hypothetical season forward, it’s hard to see any one-loss team missing out, along with the loser of the SEC championship. So that’s four teams. But Alabama and Ole Miss are sitting there at 10-2 — and Alabama has a win over Missouri, which has a relatively weak schedule strength. So is Texas’, but it would own a win over Georgia.
Arguments will ensue. And that’s not even taking into account the national field and how many quality teams emanate from the other three power conferences.
It’s going to get heated. It will be complicated. And it will be here soon.
GO DEEPER
West Coast football in 2024: Optimism and concern for each former Pac-12 program
(Top photo of Brian Kelly: Michael Hickey / Getty Images)
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Seth Emerson is a senior writer for The Athletic covering Georgia and the SEC. Seth joined The Athletic in 2018 from The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, and also covered the Bulldogs and the SEC for The Albany Herald from 2002-05. Seth also covered South Carolina for The State from 2005-10. Follow Seth on Twitter @SethWEmerson
