On Sunday, the Taliban retook Kabul, Afghanistan’s capital, almost 20 years after being chased out by the USA and NATO troops. It was a victory won from their sheer resilience than fighting tactics. For all its military might and its benevolent aspiration of training Afghans to be an independent nation, the USA finally got worn from fighting the most protracted armed conflict in its history. Even before President Joe Biden decided it was over, the emotional rush and optimistic spirit that propel people to choose war had given way to a disillusioned reality. An investigative analysis piece published by The Washington Post in 2019 was highly revealing in this regard. The article showed that not only had the soldiers grown cynical about their prolonged stay in Afghanistan, but even senior US bureaucrats had come to terms with the fact that the war was unwinnable. Unfortunately, there was too much at stake for them to admit the truth to the public, and so they kept piling on their initial mistake. Pulling out is a bold admission that their almighty military-industrial complex met its realistic limits in Afghanistan.
The images emanating from Afghanistan as they undergo this historical transition phase have been iconic. From photos of the Taliban occupying the presidential palace to their spokesperson being interviewed by a female anchor on a local television station, to the chaotic scenes of scores of civilians activating their “Plan B” for fear of what woes that would befall them under the new regime, these images prefigure life in Afghanistan post-US occupation. Nigerians who support the Taliban because of their anti-western ideology should perhaps take a moment to wonder why Afghans themselves would be that petrified at the thought of living under a leadership that rules based on radical religious ideology.
Shortly after the Taliban gained the presidential complex, chairperson of the Kano State Gas Pipeline Project Delivery and Gas Industralisation Committee, Muaz Magaji, deemed it a victory worthy of being celebrated on social media. He is probably not the only Nigerian official harbouring such emotion. Months ago, the Minister of Communications and Digital Economy, Sheikh Isa Pantami, had to face his history of support for the Taliban and Al Qaeda. Although Pantami jettisoned his professions of support for the fundamentalists when it threatened his present lush job, it is possible that he privately retains his sentiments. The irony of northerners’ sympathising with the Taliban is that if Nigeria were to break up today, their section of the country would likely witness similar scenes as Afghanistan, where people were so desperate to leave their own country they clung to a military plane taking off.
If Nigeria fractured, a chunk of northern Nigeria too would try to flee to another section of the country. Who will wilfully choose to be stuck in a country with maniacs like the Hisbah who publicly confess they get sexually aroused by plastic mannequins and then proceed to ban them from public view? Because people do not regularly challenge fundamentalist groups like Hisbah does not mean they want to be condemned to living in a republic with them. Like the Afghans, they too would probably flee elsewhere to escape the prospect of living with a strangulating religious ideology that, no longer mitigable by pushbacks from other parts of the country, will quickly mutate into an abominable evil.
In the past few days, following the chaos that attended the USA troops’ withdrawal, some commentators have understandably lamented how quickly the gains made in Afghanistan were rolled back. Afghans could not even hold it together for even a week before things fell apart. Their observations are spot-on, but anyone who read The Washington Post’s article could not have been surprised at the turn of events. It is an account of staggering corruption, both financial and moral, that has defined the USA’s venture into Afghanistan. In a series of reports, some Pentagon officials admitted that the victories they won in territories did not hold up as soon as the troops left. Some saw the pointlessness of what they were trying to achieve in Afghanistan as far back as a decade ago but publicly maintained the official position that the USA was on track. Unfortunately, that is the nature of war. The certainty with which we plunge into it eventually recedes, leaving its prosecutors to war against the truth.
When adjusted for inflation, it is estimated that the USA spent more on Afghanistan than they did on the Marshall Plan that revived entire Western Europe after World War 2. In that period, around 172,390 people have been estimated to have died and approximately $2 trillion was spent. Because they went to war on credit, some analysts are projecting that by 2050, the humongous amount would have accrued up to 250 per cent interest. But was it all a waste? Time would tell.
Maybe at the end of the day, the best the USA achieved was to buy the Afghans some time. While one cannot downplay the truth that hard times are ahead for the Afghans under the Taliban, there is also a possibility that the years of occupation equipped them with enough strength to take their national destiny into their own hands. This is neither wishful thinking nor a foregone conclusion. It is a consideration of how the times have changed.
Also, in the period the Taliban were out of governing the Afghanistan public sphere, they retreated to the rural areas where they maintained a shadow government. This week, as they returned to the capital, they will find that the world had shifted its orbit; some acts of extremism are no longer just as possible to enact. It is one thing to be professing radical Islamic ideology from the jagged terrains and the deserts of rural Afghanistan. Being faced with the nuances of administration, especially for a country contending with dwindling economic resources, is another affair entirely.
There have been several significant changes in the world that will make it harder to merely repeat their macabre governance of pre-2001. They cannot simply return their reputed repressive ideologies to the people who live in the age of immediate communication made possible by social media platforms. This does not mean the days ahead of Afghanistan will be easy, but the past two decades could not have all been a waste. The Afghans are in a good place where they hold their national destiny in their own hands. What happens from now on depends firmly on how they grasp their fate.
I suspect the reality of the changing times has dawned on the Taliban too, and that is why they are currently on a charm offensive. The fact that one of their spokespersons called a female BBC Australia journalist while she was presenting live on air, and another spokesperson even granted a media interview to a female anchor showed how much they are anxious to put their good feet forward while the world’s attention is trained on them. These are definitely symbolic gestures, but not unimportant. Some years ago, it would have been unthinkable for the Taliban even to acknowledge the existence of those women. In their first press conference, they already promised Afghans amnesty, peace, and even access to female education and career. That shows how much they are invested in buying some measure of goodwill at this critical juncture. Yes, it could be that they are only still reacting to the gaze of the world that is presently fixed on them, but even such pandering might provide a leeway for the people of Afghanistan to find a path towards thriving.
aadelakun@punchng.com
