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The United Kingdom was originally a union of the three ancient kingdoms of England (56 million+), Scotland (five million+), and Wales (three million). Northern Ireland (two million) was added as a conquered, and severed territory from the neighbouring Irish Republic in 1921. Thus, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland became the officially recognised diplomatic name for the UK. This and other mesmerising details below bear a lot of significance which will become clearer as you read.
The ‘United’ Kingdom harbours a lot of disunity within it. It has a ‘unitary’ government, at the same time accommodates devolved authorities (Scottish Parliament), (Welsh and Northern Ireland Assemblies) sometimes pulling in opposite directions. It is a Monarchy, yet runs a stable parliamentary democracy. It voted to leave the European Union by a narrow margin of 52% for, and 48% against. Like the country wanted to leave and stay in the EU at the same time. The UK is a leading European nation, but it is also an island, surrounded by water (the English Channel). It was only recently linked by an underwater train tunnel between Paris and London. It is a country of many contradictions, built on a glorious imperial past many in the upper echelons of political power still feel nostalgic about.
The UK joined the EU in 1973 as a way of bolstering the wider reach of its dwindling world influence. It has now left the same Union, (the largest free trading bloc in modern history) ironically, again, to bolster the wider reach of its (still) dwindling global influence. What is going on?
It has always been argued (with some justification) that the EU is fundamentally a trading bloc. It started by enhancing economic cooperation through the defunct European Coal and Steel Community in 1950, but it quickly developed a political momentum of its own. European nations had been rivals in many theatres of war across the centuries, most notably, World Wars I and II. It was particularly the World War II campaign(September 1939-September 1945) against Hitler and Nazi Germany that got the political elite in the UK pretty nervous about Europe. The then Prime Minister and war hero, Winston Churchill, had rallied the British troops in an existential fight that led to a resounding defeat for Nazi Germany. The post-war settlement, the article of Germany’s surrender, was to permanently neutralise the country’s military capability for all time. Based on the 1945 “Postdam Agreement” between the USA, the USSR, and the United Kingdom, Germany was never to initiate a foreign military adventure again. To all intents and purposes, it became an occupied territory and later divided into “East” and “West” reflecting the old Eastern and Western blocs respectively.
Thereafter, the move to integrate Europe into some type of ‘union’ gathered pace, if only to forestall the recurrence of unbridled nationalism across the European political terrain. It worked.
Nonetheless, the UK did not feel comfortable being part of the European “political project” as it became known, until 1973, by which time Germany had rebuilt its financial, manufacturing, technological and engineering capabilities to become the strongest in Europe, likewise the defeated and demilitarised Japan in Asia. That is what happens when a country does not need to spend humongous amounts of money on military hardware and defence, as Britain, the USA, and the other world powers had been doing and are still doing (albeit) to a lesser extent these days. The prestige of being a major nuclear power gives you a veto at the UN Security Council, and foreign policy leverage in world affairs, but it comes at a cost. Germany and Japan have not had to worry about any of that since 1945. Consequently, as a result of its focus exclusively on science, engineering, and the economy, Germany emerged from the ruins of the war, and has now surpassed the UK as the economic powerhouse in Europe (the fourth largest in the world, as opposed to the UK 6th). Although the UK was ill at ease with Germany’s new economic strength and dominance in Europe even before joining the EU in 1973, the need to expand trade, and in particular, to stem the tide of nationalism exploding across Europe made a good case for joining and strengthening its institutions.
As time went by, the old “East” and “West” Germany were re-united following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1989. Germany is now firmly established as the most populous (83 million), wealthiest, and de facto EU leader. Question: How could the (hitherto) most influential UK now start playing second fiddle to Germany within a unified Europe, and also contend with some of the tiniest new East European entrants to the club on an equal footing? Horror! That question was both unpalatable and unanswerable to the UK’s chattering classes. “We want control of our borders”, “We want to make our own laws” “We are fed up of the EU telling us what to do” etc, became effective slogans for the ultra “Brexiteers” in the referendum campaign of 2016, which they won. The UK finally exited the EU last week, December 31, 2020. The economic ramifications will be felt for many years to come, but it will not be the end of the world for the country. The political ramifications, however, portend bad omen for the country’s territorial integrity. Here is why.
Membership of the EU has been instrumental for spreading prosperity and dousing the nationalist fires across Europe, especially in the UK with Scottish and Welsh nationalism becoming a hot-button political issue and been pushed back time and again. The creation of a new European identity was chiefly designed to lend a new focus and sense of belonging for minority groups across Europe. There is evidence that it has largely been successful. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, all overwhelmingly voted to remain in the EU, while England, (the majority ethnic grouping in the UK), voted to leave. Resentment of England for using its numerical advantage to push the UK out of the EU has begun to make political waves within the regional authorities, and it is something that will end up fuelling the very nationalist fervour that the UK has been busy neutralising for decades. You do not cut your nose to spite your face. Do you? This is precisely what Brexit has achieved for the UK.
In my view, it is now inevitable that the forces of nationalism in the “home counties” will grow from strength to strength. It is also even conceivable that the English too will react to the growing demand for autonomy by the regional authorities, with ethnic jingoism of their own. After all, they are the largest and most consequential partners in the union. Many English nationalists themselves would be glad to be rid of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, all of whom they believe are merely sponging off England anyway.
For now, Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his right-wing cabinet will sing the triumphant tunes of ‘victory’ and a major proportion of the electorate will also bask in the euphoria of the successful end to a long-drawn-out campaign. Frantic negotiations for new trade deals will be struck with different countries around the world, and a “British” passport will symbolise a new source of pride. But, demand for Scottish independence will grow louder, and the quest for the unification of Northern Ireland with the Irish Republic will become unstoppable. Even the normally placid Wales will be swallowed up by the wind of change blowing across the kingdom. Consequently, within the next 20 years at the most, the current map of the UK will be reshaped by the centrifugal forces of nationalism and irredentism. The Pandora’s Box will have been well and truly opened. The genie, they say, is out of the bottle.
