Ayo Olukotun
Governance in the sense of designing, implementing and following through policies in the context of a multi-stakeholder approach has never been our forte as a people. Our political landscape is littered with carcasses of abandoned policies, failed visions, unimplemented or partially implemented projects. We did not have a plan or strategy for dealing with the coronavirus pandemic, although one was dredged up by a zealous Presidential Task Force, as well as the governors of Lagos and Ogun states, in the midst of the battle. As far as this columnist is aware, we do not yet have a plan for returning to normalcy, which in the ongoing, low quality debate on the subject is viewed as a one-off lifting of the lockdown in the states and cities most affected by it. “End the lockdown now”, one side in the discourse yells. “No, we must tread gently, the figures of infected citizens are escalating daily”, the other side responds.
On Thursday, for example, the Nigerian Labour Congress threatened fire and brimstone were the current lockdown to be extended by another two weeks. In the same vein, those advocating an extension are not advancing convincing arguments or rationale why, in the context of our largely informal economy, and in the face of growing opposition, an extension is warranted. The issues should not also be seen, at least judging from the experiences of other countries, as an either/or situation, considering that several countries in Asia and Europe have ventured tentatively into varying degrees of easing the restrictions while conscious that they are walking the tight rope between premature loosening of restrictions and extended ill-defined caging of the population, which can do untrammelled damage to the economy.
Even here in Nigeria, not all the states have shut down activities for a 24-hour duration, which is the extreme version of restricted movement. For instance, Oyo and Ondo states, and several states in the North have only maintained curfews from 7pm-7am, while allowing movement during the day. Similarly, Ogun State has in place, a relaxed version of the lockdown in Lagos, by allowing some days every week for transit and transactions between the hours of 7am and 2pm. So, obviously, those calling for a lifting of the cage are not saying the same thing, since the cages are not all made of the same metals.
As of now, virtually every country that has shut down activities to prevent the rapid spread of the pandemic is contemplating or has actually put in motion, graduated steps towards the resumption of normalcy. In Europe, for example, Denmark, Germany, Switzerland and Austria have hesitantly loosened restrictions, with some of them announcing resumption of daycare and primary schools, while maintaining such restrictions as the prohibition of gatherings that are more than 10 people at once. Take Austria for example. The country began the restriction of its nine million population on March 16, a month or so later, Austria began to ease the lockdown policy by allowing the opening of non-essential stores, as well as garden and hardware centres. It scheduled the opening of shopping malls and hairdressers salons for May 1, while making compulsory, the wearing of masks in stores and buses. Interestingly, the country, which has roughly half the population of Lagos State, recorded, as of last week, almost 15,000 cases of coronavirus, with not less than 510 fatalities. Calculated steps following a well-laid plan are similarly noticeable in Denmark, where children returned to the classroom last week, followed up by the reopening of businesses, as well as professional services.
Noticeably, several citizens who were not convinced of the safety and clarity of the reopening measures kept their children out of school, waiting to see how things will pan out. Needless to add that China and South Korea have gone further than most other countries in calibrated easing of restrictions. What this narrative suggests is that normalcy, however it is defined, has to be a planned and gradual affair rather than an overwhelming affair that suddenly throws away all restrictions, with the possibility of wiping away the gains of earlier shutdowns. Beyond that, liberalising restrictions and taking tentative steps towards normalcy must be connected somehow to targets and milestones, such as, flattening the curve, as it is often expressed, or putting the disease under control. Mercifully, the number of identified cases as well as fatalities in Nigeria and other African countries are well below the global average; although it is not entirely clear whether this is partly a result of slow and inadequate testing or the spin-off of effective control measures. Once, however, a clear direction has been established in the journey towards a modicum of mastery, it is important not to lose touch by failing to carry the people along. Already, there are signs of discontent, frustration and growing breaches in places like Lagos and Abuja with reported protests regarding hunger and possible starvation. Once disaffection sets in on an increasing scale, a large amount of unhealthy repression will have to be employed to get people to abide by the stringency of the restrictions. Theoretically, it is possible to contemplate such a gamble, but whether this will achieve the results envisaged is another matter altogether.
Once a growing number of people begin to raise issues of survival, and seeing the exercise as a choice between dying from hunger or the pandemic, then the matter has entered a testy phase. That consideration aside, we must also compute for how long people can reasonably stay out of work and out of school, even in a circumstance in which work ethics are slovenly and laggard. For an economy that was already in trouble even before the health crisis, it cannot be advantageous and could certainly become ruinous to have a lockdown that wipes off survival margins of a large section of the population. Take this also in the context of the ravages of insecurity, disruption of farmlands and the outworking of banditry in several parts of the country and the point becomes clearer. Ideally, the relief packages introduced by government and the private sector ought to have ameliorated the woes of the poorest sections of the populace; unfortunately, however, the exercise will appear to have been so politicised and so bungled that its impact could only have been marginal.
What then is to be done given these dilemmas and constraints? We must begin to look at a sequential and planned return to normalcy by gradually loosening restrictions, except in states like Kano, where a new surge became evident, a few days ago. Such a plan cannot be a one-size-fits-all but must take account of the differential stages and intensity of infections in states across the country. It is interesting that in some states like Oyo, where the lockdown was not total, the number of new cases has not risen correspondingly. So, federal and state governments must put heads together to draw a timetable for the hesitant return to normalcy while continuing to deepen the infrastructure for managing and containing the disease, just in case a rebound occurs as these restrictions are being lifted.
At any rate, it is obtuse to talk of extending lockdowns without weighing adequately the economic, social and cultural dynamics of such a policy.
