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Ahead of the release of the Labour Force Survey by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), stakeholders have queried the accuracy of the new methodology, expected to reduce Nigeria’s unemployment figure.
They argued that the report, which gave the basis for how labour surveys should be conducted, restricted those to be surveyed because of the time it was conducted.
As such, they maintained that the report is faulty as it does not provide some indices to accurately provide information on how households use their labour resources, as well as the subsequent impact on the livelihoods and well-being of the people.
According to the Statistician-General of the Federation, Adeyemi Adeniran, the update is to upgrade the Nigerian Living Standard Survey (NLSS) to international standards.
Adeniran said with all eyes on the bureau to produce accurate data that is in line with international standards and guidelines, it has decided to adopt a new methodology that would reflect the present realities.
“Following guidelines adopted during the 19th International Conference of Labour Statisticians (ICLS) in Geneva in 2013, the aim of this re-evaluation was two-pronged. On one hand was to ensure that the methodology is in line with international best practices and locally relevant, and on the other hand, to ensure that a production process was robust enough to produce estimates on a sustainable basis (avoiding periodic gaps), and also, produce more labour market indicators and analysis that will inform government about the employment and job situation in Nigeria,” he said.
The Guardian gathered that the last published labour survey in Nigeria was conducted using the 13th ICLS, which was birthed and adopted in 1982 at the International Conference of Labour Statisticians.
The implementation of the new methodology is expected to reduce the country’s unemployment figure, which was last conducted in 2020, which pegged the rate of the unemployed to 33.3 per cent.
The old method defined those that constitute the labour force to be from 15-64 years old but the newly adopted one views it to be 15 and above that are willing, available and able when the survey is conducted.
Also, the unemployed category would have worked at least one hour from the previous seven days the survey would be conducted, which is a departure from the initial method of 20 hours.
The NBS had reported that the new definition of employment has been changed on the new labour statistics methodology to include anyone who works at least one hour per week, as opposed to the previous requirement of working at least 20 hours per week. The move, it said would reduce the country’s unemployment numbers.
Similarly, the underemployment would be tagged for those who work up to 39 hours a week and are willing to accept more hours of work which was formerly between 20 and 39 hours within the reference period of a week.
Also, the sample size of respondents would be increased to 35,520 households’ nationwide using newly demarcated enumeration areas spread across 12 months, which is against the sample of 33,300 nationwide.
While those who engage in subsistence were included in the old methodology, the category would be surveyed differently and removed from the new one. The new method is expected to adopt continuous data collection throughout the year, which is against the quarterly collection of data that was done before.
An advocacy platform, Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD), which faulted the methodology said it does not provide some indices to accurately give credence to information regarding how households use their labour resources, its subsequent impact on livelihoods and well-being.
Criticising the one-hour-per-week method, against the previous requirement of working at least 20 hours per week, an economist, Basil Abia, said it was a fraudulent way of reducing unemployment numbers.
According to him, in developed nations, many people on one hour per week claim benefits unlike in Nigeria.
He said people are grossly poor and unemployed with a vast majority of them being dependents.
“The concept of “in-work poverty” highlights the fact that individuals can be employed, while still experiencing poverty. The population of 133 million people living in multidimensional poverty encompasses both employed and unemployed individuals,” he said.
The Guardian gathered that using N30,000 as minimum wage, the hourly rate would amount to N187.
Already, a professional services firm, KPMG, had stated that the unemployment rate would increase to 40.6 per cent in 2023, due to economic growth and the inability of the nation’s economy to absorb about four to five million graduates yearly, into the labour market.
Assistant General Secretary of the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), Chris Onyeka, urged the NBS to release a database, which reflects the realities on the ground.
He said: “We always come with figures different from the NBS, especially on unemployment and inflation rates most times, independent research is conducted on macroeconomic indices.”
Stating that he was not expecting lower than what was released last, he said unemployment data should be close to 40 per cent.
“When you disaggregate the data, you find out that youth and women unemployment is under-represented. Fresh graduates are churned out yearly to join the labour market and the capacity of the labour market to absorb fresh graduates is limited, even the ones there cannot find space. The figure should be close to 40 per cent,” he said.
Similarly, Vice President of the Trade Union Congress of Nigeria (TUC), Tommy Okon, who also said he was not expecting anything less, said the issue of underemployment should be looked into critically.
He lamented that a lot of Nigerians’ earnings are not commensurate to their educational status, stating that many are working just to put food on their table.
“Nobody would have expected youths would seek greener pastures in Sudan, a country we are far better than by every standard,” he said. Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr. Muda Yusuf, said the country’s unemployment data has worsened.
He said: “With 33.3 per cent, if you apply to the people in the working age group, you will see that the number would be quite big because the population has grown and more people have graduated to fall into that group. The unemployment rate has not improved and the number has increased significantly.”
However, he said the country’s declining economic situation has compelled Nigerian youths to become more creative. He said the move where many young Nigerians have ventured into creative works and generated income will reduce the high rate of unemployment.
